The Five Rules of Risk

  • күнү жарыяланды 2 ай мурун

    Wendover ProductionsWendover Productions

    узактыгы: 13:43

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    Animation by Josh Sherrington
    Sound by Graham Haerther (www.Haerther.net)
    Thumbnail by Simon Buckmaster
    Music by epidemicsound.com
    Select footage courtesy the AP Archive
    References:
    [1] www.cdc.gov/motorvehiclesafety/pedestrian_safety/index.html
    [2] www.statista.com/statistics/198029/total-number-of-us-licensed-drivers-by-state/
    [3] www.statista.com/statistics/191660/fatality-rate-per-100000-licensed-drivers-in-the-us-since-1988/
    [4] www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6843304/
    [5] www.cmu.edu/epp/people/faculty/research/PS%20FSLRC%20HowSafe.pdf
    [6] www-jstor-org.ezproxy.is.ed.ac.uk/stable/pdf/1727970.pdf?refreqid=excelsior%3Ac48a7fe2f9c0fedf29cba859db4daebd
    [7] www.cmu.edu/epp/people/faculty/research/PS%20FSLRC%20HowSafe.pdf
    [8] journal.sjdm.org/7303a/jdm7303a.htm

Wendover Productions
Wendover Productions

We got some math wrong. The annual fatality odds for licensed drivers in the US is actually 1 in 6,000 which translates to lifetime odds of about 1 in 75.

2 ай мурун
Lee McNally
Lee McNally

The 1 in 75 odds lifetime odds is still fuzzy. We need to apply the Geometric Distribution (special case of the Negative Binomial Distribution) here to calculate the probability of fatality over n years, assuming the annual probability remains constant. If F is the cumulative probability over n years, then F = 1-(1-p)^n. For F = 1/75 and p = 1/6000, n is about 80 years. I'd submit to you not many people are driving for 80 years! An alternative way to do the calculation is to apply the Exponential Distribution. If lambda is the probability/year, then F=1-EXP(-lambda*time). If we use 65 years as a more realistic span a driver is on the roads, then we get a cumulative probability of 1.08% by either the Geometric Distribution or Exponential Distribution approach.

Ай мурун
The Eyles
The Eyles

Given that and other mistakes in the video, it should have been taken down and a corrected version uploaded.

Ай мурун
cairo
cairo

Inspired by Covid? The economical impact vs life impact of the pandemik makes questions/answers like this so important.

Ай мурун
Henry Zhou
Henry Zhou

Also another very nitpicky math fact, infinity times anything is not always infinity. Infinity times 0, or 1/infinity are undefined

Ай мурун
Adam Ladd
Adam Ladd

Thats actually way higher than I thought it would be

Ай мурун
David Yeakle
David Yeakle

I'd argue that the outside isn't any more risky than inside. I had a guy down the street who had a drunk driver drive through his wall last year. There could be a terrorist attack, a meteor impact, a tornado, robbers, serial killers, a house fire, a medical issue like a heart attack, an accident, etcetera. If you think it's safer inside than outside I'm going to need a source for that. Edit: I'd also ague that valuing life infinitely doesn't preclude you from taking risks. The value of anything is nonexistent if you waste it. It's like having yen in the US where you can't spent it. The value of that money is 0 since you can't buy anything with it and it can neither serve its purpose as money or be valuable as paper since it's already been filled up with stuff. Wasted things have no value. So therefore risking your life can only increase its value, not decrease it.

8 саат мурун
Bamsen 06
Bamsen 06

As a mountain biker i was offend by those parents and administrators

17 саат мурун
Johannes khang Ho
Johannes khang Ho

i like how he used the cybertruck

Күн мурун
Sutiono Joyodiningrat
Sutiono Joyodiningrat

You don't even mention about hazards. Because people often confuse between Hazards and Risk and they think that both are the same but they don't

Күн мурун
EdocsilM
EdocsilM

1:11 is Wendover have something against Tesla or Elon Musk? It's definitely a Cybertruck hitting the man figure!

Күн мурун
Native Afro-Ευrasion
Native Afro-Ευrasion

I wouldn't go mountain biking not because I could die but because I have no control over the happening and could be hurt more than badly. On the other hand in a car I decide speed, route and can stop at any time if for example the weather changes. If I stoped while mountain biking I would fall and possible brake my back, if I change the course I would get too fast for safe manouvers and would brake my arms, legs and back and stopping for example ice I would slowly freeze to death while not the death but the pain is the problem.

Күн мурун
Pavel Lukacko
Pavel Lukacko

Life can have an 'infinite' value if you weigh the risks of going outside with the risks of staying inside (e.g., starving to death, assured destruction). That said, your equation is not necessarily wrong, but it makes no sense to have an 'infinite' value per se, infinity doesn't exist. You can only value your life higher than anything else (values are ordinal). So that can be represented by valuing life at %100. Now the equation is intelligible: 100% x 1/55,000 = 1/55,000. Let's say the risk of staying home is 9/10. 100% x 9/10 = 9/10. Huzzah. 1/55,000 is less than 9/10, so the expected value of going outside is higher than staying inside, you are better off.

3 күн мурун
Bogdan Cosmin
Bogdan Cosmin

I didnt get anything out of this video lmao People choose the risks based on their skills and confidence and thats all

4 күн мурун
Jan Šebek
Jan Šebek

kinda confused, most of videos have some factual value, this is just some random risk numbers, fancy graphics put over it. Also ure trying to explain subjective thing with maths, explaining that perception and statistics aren't same...idk...weird video

4 күн мурун
DL_E
DL_E

Well you see Wendover, it's not that as humans we don't value ourselves infinitely it's that our life is valued by what we have and how happy we are. To keep the balance of happiness to worth of life you must walk outside to keep yourself happy to therefore keep your life value. Again, if you did nothing risky you wouldn't be happy. So yes, value of life isn't infinite and therefore the ratio of happiness to value of life can be calculatable. Human risk evaluation is likely how it is because of how humans used to live. Human life value is set and I think it'd be interesting if someone managed to calculate it, that is, if each value ratio is the same. Likely, it isn't.

5 күн мурун
tammy cabrera
tammy cabrera

nasa ariana grande

5 күн мурун
Daniel Jacobovitz
Daniel Jacobovitz

This is funny... My 'yard stick' for measuring risk isn't disease, but driving in a car... Is something more or less risky than driving/being in a car? That is literally what I always ask myself...

6 күн мурун
Liam Stanton
Liam Stanton

This doesn't account for eternal life.

7 күн мурун
Isaac Souza
Isaac Souza

very confusing

8 күн мурун
Andrew Seich
Andrew Seich

.... Is that Understanding to Perceived Risk chart inverted horizontally? EDIT: No it's not! I fall upon my sword in a controlled fashion.

8 күн мурун
Avery Teoda
Avery Teoda

Your subtle way of explaining the psychology of the COVID pandemic and encouraging critical thinking about it is interesting and compelling.

8 күн мурун
The More You Know
The More You Know

Hey Wendover Productions, I was wondering if you take actions to help small channels? Just curious. I’m a new youtuber and my videos are quality but I can’t seem to get any eyes on my content just because I’m a small channel. Thanks

11 күн мурун
Night Shark 115
Night Shark 115

My life isn't of infinite value to me, my expierences are.

13 күн мурун
Unknown Potato
Unknown Potato

You are more statistically likely to die if you are alive..

14 күн мурун
Mad Wax
Mad Wax

In today's economy, most people can't choose not to drive a car.

17 күн мурун
will culpepper
will culpepper

"Studies have shown…" = DRINK. Extra credit for citing your sources, though. Good job.

18 күн мурун
Tyler
Tyler

Why on the student's risk list there are two number 6's, and no 16?

18 күн мурун
Jusiun
Jusiun

The video preview thing is a footage of people boarding Ryanair. Nice job.

19 күн мурун
Natalija Djokic
Natalija Djokic

I know how to play risk, now give me 200$ you put your tanks on my Eastern Europe

20 күн мурун
potato salad
potato salad

Wait isn't this the same narrator as HAI?

21 күн мурун
Fraggels
Fraggels

god, am i happy, that our german constitution is based on kant's definition of the dignity of men that disallows for any one life being weighted against any other life. this utalitarian bullshit is disgusting

21 күн мурун
Svampmoln
Svampmoln

And this is why we will have to wait another billion years for self driving cars since ever accident by one is blown out of proportion by every media outlet :P Also why some particular people can't fathom leaving their house without a gun to defend themselves but will chainsmoke in their car to the McDonalds driv-in on daily basis ^^ ...I wonder in which sense I'm the biggest hypocrite when it comes to risk, can't be hard to find stupid shit I do at all. My first vaccation week which just passed probably knocked a few years of my lifespan due to alcohol consumption alone.

22 күн мурун
Smedley Jefferson
Smedley Jefferson

awesome video

24 күн мурун
Exentity - Gaming with Tourettes
Exentity - Gaming with Tourettes

1:10 100% a cybertruck

24 күн мурун
Kyle Douglas
Kyle Douglas

This is how school should be. Fun learning like all of his videos

24 күн мурун
Elijah Ciali
Elijah Ciali

*Half as Interesting:* Here's an obscure fact about this one city *Wendover: HOW MUCH DO YOU WANNA DIE!?*

26 күн мурун
actng
actng

I too was disappointed when I realized this was not a game hack

28 күн мурун
MazapanDatabase
MazapanDatabase

"People are more tolerant of voluntary risks" I guess that explains why some peeps are completely against wearing a mask

28 күн мурун
William Thomas
William Thomas

Love the cybertruck at 2:43

28 күн мурун
PaNi MLG
PaNi MLG

If infinity times anything is infinity, and zero times anything is zero, what is infinity times zero?

28 күн мурун
gamer DD
gamer DD

So walking outside is a risk huh? Then thanks quarantine you saved my life

29 күн мурун
LeftOnSeen
LeftOnSeen

ngl as a music producer, I lowkey cant relate with the going out part...

Ай мурун
TheDarrylJohnsonShow
TheDarrylJohnsonShow

Awesome topic!

Ай мурун
Laidback History
Laidback History

Don’t you just hate half as interesting

Ай мурун
laurence L
laurence L

1 out of 600?! Wtf?! Can't be true... There would be more than 200 000 deads/ year. 'For 2016 specifically, National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA) data shows 37,461 people were killed in 34,436 motor vehicle crashes, an average of 102 per day' (wiki)

Ай мурун
Chaka2 Allen
Chaka2 Allen

I genuinely thought this video would be about the board game.

Ай мурун
Adventures with Cool Ninja
Adventures with Cool Ninja

So this is why everyone is wearing a mask

Ай мурун
ᑕYᗷEᖇᑭᑌᑎK
ᑕYᗷEᖇᑭᑌᑎK

Please make the videos more Frequent and please post more on YouTube than in other streaming services.

Ай мурун
Anon Doe
Anon Doe

i think that the reason people don't care as much when more people die has to do with our ability to precieve it. think about it, it's easy to picture your mom or your familiy but can you even picture what one million people would look like (not just a crowd) much less can the average person precieve those people having their own lives and experiences

Ай мурун
Dean Gulbarry
Dean Gulbarry

I couldn't finish this because of how flawed it is. 1) life is ALMOST of infinite value but not infinite because we are creatures of empathy. 2) we risk our life by going outside and driving cars and preforming dangerous activities in order to PRESERVE and improve the QUALITY of our lives and the lives of OTHERS.

Ай мурун
IIISentorIII
IIISentorIII

pls for the love of god, *never EVER* use this background kaleidoscope animation @ 3.49 ever again in your videos. I beg you!

Ай мурун
I Putu Satyena Pande
I Putu Satyena Pande

"The death of thousands in a natural disaster or pandemic is less surprising than a small casualty caused by an attack" Coronavirus: kills thousands more than 9/11 U.S: meh Whelp

Ай мурун
Eva Slyva
Eva Slyva

I imagined this video being narrated by a grim reaper that didn't want people to die

Ай мурун
Zombie Girl
Zombie Girl

asap rocky

Ай мурун
Tu Chenz
Tu Chenz

10:20 the 1st life was a white dude and the 1000th was a black dude GOTTEM

Ай мурун
Ozzy Wozzy
Ozzy Wozzy

We're all just gonna not notice the Cyber Truck silhouette at 1:09 Okay.

Ай мурун
Siffrin
Siffrin

4:48 "Or I'll could always sue you."

Ай мурун
Vetle AG Husby
Vetle AG Husby

I love how the car symbol is a cybertruck

Ай мурун
denzal689
denzal689

1:35 backing out of that driveway must be stressful af

Ай мурун
cairo
cairo

There are some faults in the logic though: before Chernobyl people could not know the risk of nuclear power, but so do the experts. Also: nuclear power is very dangerous, just that people counterbalance and make very strict security measures. I mean a normal factory can not explode and damage a nature as a nuclear one with nuclear waste and closed regions for multiple decades...

Ай мурун
FUNGUN555
FUNGUN555

the opening to this video certainly wont help anyone's agoraphobia lmao

Ай мурун
Blair Imani
Blair Imani

The prologue definitely lost me

Ай мурун
WilltheThrill
WilltheThrill

WHO ELSE HERE THOUGHT THAT HE MEANT THE BOARD GAME?

Ай мурун
sankondbest1
sankondbest1

Well thank you! This is what we need. I have tried to explain this about 1000x over the past few months to people I know but you did it better than I ever could have.

Ай мурун

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